Dear RN list, Aug. 8 We have had several interesting comments on Sviatoslav Zabelin's call to action and the "collapse scenario" idea, enough actually that this message will be unwieldy if I include them all in their entirety. The first one, below, from Greg Guma, editor of _Toward Freedom, is an excerpt from a column he wrote on the Y2K problem. From: <•••@••.•••> Date: Tue, 4 Aug 1998 19:59:07 EDT To: •••@••.••• Subject: Re: hand pumps! Maybe I've missed something in this dialogue, but it seems to me that the most plausible collapse scenario relates to the technological meltdown that could occur on 1/1/00. That it coincides with other millenarian predictions may or may not be coincidence, but I believe that we ignore the possibility at our peril. I'm all for grass roots organizing, but I don't think that technology provides a reliable or sufficient vehicle. Even if Internet activists are still hooked up in the next century, they'll be an elite group hoping to "airlift" change onto communities. How can a technological vanguard hope to compete with the people who invented and still control the system? And what about the billions who aren't part of this process? Anyway, here are a few of my thought about the possibilities of collapse, from my Maverick Chronicles column. It's for a general audience and perhaps a bit elementary, but the point may be relevant in this debate. Big Trouble in the Year 00 We're just over 500 days from the most spectacular, positively global bash ever. In New York's Times Square, the fun officially begins at 7 a.m. on December 31, 1999, as the year 2000 dawns in the South Pacific. Throughout the next 24 hours, revelers will watch giant TV screens flash images of people around the world, all greeting the new century in their respective times zones. In Southern California, the festivities will be well underway by then -- a three-day blow out called Party 2000. Expected to draw an estimated 2.5 million people, it's being billed as the biggest New Years Eve celebration ever held on planet Earth. ...<snip> Just moments after the cheers, however, expect to experience just what that word -- interdependence -- really means. Here's how it could go: When their internal clocks fail to roll over, many computer systems -- both large and small --begin to crash. Power companies experience outages, brownouts, and power surges that wreak havoc on entire regions. If you're vacationing, forget that return flight: Most airlines aren't operating, waiting to check the integrity of air traffic control systems. Since the new millennium begins on a weekend, the full effects aren't felt until January 3 -- the first business day. At that point, affected banks begin informing customers that their account and payroll information has been temporarily lost. The day's top news story: Major industries and parts of the federal government are shut down. Will the IRS still be able to process tax information? Will Social Security and other agencies have the capacity to issue checks? Who knows. Even though only twenty percent of business and government computers crashed at the same time, the impacts are immense. Due to failures in the supply chain, manufacturing slows to the crawl. For many businesses, billing systems become unusable. With ground and rail transport disrupted, food shortages are quickly felt in major cities. Faced with medical equipment failures and lost shipments, some hospitals must deny non-essential treatment. In some places, they struggle to provide basic care in pre-technical ways. The rolling wave of failures continues to cascade around the world, touching people who never imagined they were so linked to one another. Sounds like science fiction, doesn't it? Yet, this may only be the beginning of what to expect as the world experiences the impacts of Y2K -- also known as the Millennium Bug. ...<snip> Fixing such problems will be incredibly expensive. Just repairing the Department of Veterans Affairs health care system is expected to cost over $50 million. The total price tag for the US government -- that's just federal agencies -- will be at least $4 billion, says the Office of Budget and Management. But that estimate is way low, since more has already been spent and most agencies are behind schedule. Worldwide, the direct costs could reach $600 billion. When subsequent lawsuits over everything from stalled elevators to malfunctioning nuclear plants are added, we're talking trillions. Still, the real problem isn't money. Even with unlimited funds, it just won't be possible to locate all the chips and reprogram all the computers before this non-negotiable deadline arrives. That's why companies that can afford it are already spending hundreds of millions to replace entire computer systems. While this would seem to solve their internal problems, however, it won't protect them -- or us -- from the impacts of technological interdependence. As the crash of Asian markets recently illustrated, failure in one part of a complex system usually exposes previously ignored levels of interconnection. ...<snip> Apocalypse or Renewal? The probable impacts of the millennium bug have been hot topics on the Internet for more than a year. Yet, so far the general public has been led to believe that it's just some minor technical glitch, exaggerated by the paranoid and those who believe that the end of civilization is just around the corner. At the recent congressional hearing, Senator Christopher Dodd went as far as any political leader. "It's serious," he said. But then he added the predictable clarification -- no one will die -- and warned that "we ought not to be putting people in a sense of panic.'' ...<snip> Of course, the scenario most leaders and large organizations prefer -- despite mounting evidence to the contrary -- is that technical failures will be isolated and public panic controlled. Basically, nothing much will happen. But that "official future" is the least likely of all. A much more devastating possibility is that a massive technical breakdown will spark worldwide social disruption. It's the latest version of the "apocalypse" scenario so familiar from movies and books. ...<snip> Fortunately, there's yet another scenario. Call it the "renewal" or "unity" option. In this one, we realize that the solution isn't a technical fix but instead a creative, global collaboration that breaks down the artificial barriers between us. Rather than struggling in vain to isolate problems, while competing for resources and protecting our personal turf, we truly acknowledge our interdependence and create a worldwide, cooperative network before it's too late. This means replacing secrecy with full disclosure, thus reducing distrust and the tendency to withdraw into various forms of survivalism. In communities, it requires broad participation in the development of contingency plans that deal with the expected disruption of services. But if it's going to work, business behavior also must change; competition just doesn't cut it when the issues are how to maintain power grids or keep the food distribution system functioning. Some people may still decide to break away. In South Dakota, for example, hundreds of families are creating a self-sufficiency community called Heritage Farms 2000, a so-called "safe haven" based on independence from outside energy sources. According to founder Russ Voorhees, we need such model communities because "our economy is on a collision course with a destiny that creates a high likelihood of severe fiscal depression at millennium end." While the notion that post-modern pioneers can avoid the impacts of Y2K may be naive, their emphasis on building community, helping neighbors, and shifting toward a barter-based economy has considerable merit. Despite what some fundamentalists claim, the world isn't likely to end as all those computer chips go to 00. But just as 1500 was a turning point in European history -- a painful emergence from the Middle Ages and the opening of that period of intellectual rebirth known as the Renaissance -- the year 2000 will bring on profound changes that alter many aspects of our lives. The main challenge is to learn the lesson of our impending millennial meltdown before it happens; that is, the futility of clinging to obsolete boundaries in an interconnected world. Ready or not, we're all in this together. And the possibilities? Well, we still have about 500 days to figure that out. Greg Guma is the editor of Toward Freedom. Maverick Chronicles appears weekly in the Vermont Times, To contact him, read other Maverick articles, or browse TF, visit the magazine's website at www.towardfreedom.com --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Date: Wed, 5 Aug 1998 14:23:21 -0300 To: •••@••.••• From: David Cameron/Nancy Sherwood <•••@••.•••> Subject: Re: Preparing for the "collapse scenario" >>snip Key crew members >on the ship Titanic failed to heed the warnings given to them." Indeed. It feels somehow silly to be "building an ark" as it were, when everyone around me is busy getting on with life as usual.snip<< The Titanic, the Ark, how apt. And I know what the hand-pump person meant by "feeling silly". And indeed, the next days postings on the subject has people telling him & us how inappropriate, pointless, etc. it is to act on our survival instinct, cry wolf, try to get others to WAKE UP and take collective action. On other lists I am having my quest for collective understanding and action on this issue stifled on the basis that its not germaine to the lists. "Excuse me, the power may go off unexpectedly!" When indeed the boat is sinking or at least tilting precariously, we don't need a wait & see admonition, or to be told that since there aren't enough life-boats for all, we should continue to look for grander, more inclusive, solutions. I suggest we walk on 2 legs. It is clear both inside & outside this list that the problem is real and the ramifications range from "mild disruption"(whatever that means) of short-term duration, to a possible "return to the dark ages"(somewhat more graphic at least). So look after yourself and the ones dependent on you-lay in the appropriate short-term emergancy supplies, food, water, flashlights, garbage bags, 1st aid, blankets, tent(even in the city),etc., and TEN good friends. The second "leg" is for telling people what you know/think may happen and help make it safe to be silly(ie, prepared). Tell your local political reps and your friend that is inside the welfare system, or the friend who knows a guy who assigns the story ideas at the local paper. Find out how well supplied the food banks in your area are & volunteer a bit more. Keep on doing this good work & start identifying the natural sensible leaders locally-where I live the volunteer fire dept chief is probably our best bet for cool-headed and able leadership in any real emergency. Have a conversation on this subject with such people. Attend local meetings & see where & how local democratic processes could be made more truly democratic. In any conversation, try to link the perceived emergency to the overarching global context that it is a symptom of. This is very important and furthers the work of this list. ...<snip> DAVIDC EarthSea Box 95 Riverport NS Canada BOJ 2WO 902 766 4129 -------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Tue, 04 Aug 1998 15:09:02 To: •••@••.••• From: Elinor Mosher <•••@••.•••> Subject: Collapse Scenario Re: suggestions -- 1. - assist the development of all forms of local democratic >self-government, mutually beneficial, self-sufficient local economies, Agreed. 2. - - enhance the access of essential life-affirming information and >develop the spread of environmental education, I think there is a great deal of this going on now, certainly on the internet. Example: the proposed linkup between Monsanto and the Grameen banks was apparently forestalled by wide protests to the Grameen people. The fear was of the damage done to poor farmers, because of the prevention by Monsanto of seed-saving and the cost of seed to these people. Two places I find useful info: World Watch magazine and yearly summary, and <www.dieoff.org> chiefly concerned about oil/energy depletion. 2. Just looked up the subscription to World WAtch magazine: " Subscriptions to World Watch are $20 per year (6 issues) in N. America. To subscribe, send payment with name, address and phone number to WORLD WATCH, Box 879, Oxon Hill, MD, USA 20750-0879" That's in American dollars, so it isn't cheap, but it is very good. They have a website at<www.worldwatch.org> ...<snip> I am not a professional person. I am a retired grandmother living in the Annapolis valley, learning what I can on my own. However, I am concerned. (I do write a weekly column for an American online paper, the American Reporter.) You can read American Reporter at <www.american-reporter.com> My columns aren't about political or financial matters. I don't feel qualified to write on those things. They are miscellaneous items. I try to get across the idea that the value of life is in ordinary living, not in overdone, "glamorous" type of faraway activities, looking off in the distance. (And I am pretty hard on the advertisers!)
