Richard Moore

Dear friends,

I suggest we consider this to be part of _our struggle - how can the
energy of Seattle hook up with this very significant third-world
leadership nexus??


From: "robert rodvik" <•••@••.•••>
To: <•••@••.•••>
Bcc: •••@••.•••
Subject: Fw: China and India Declare War on the WTO
Date: Mon, 10 Jan 2000 22:47:01 -0800

-----Original Message-----
From: Dave <•••@••.•••>
Date: Monday, January 10, 2000 8:03 PM
Subject: China and India Declare War on the WTO

A very interesting development, coming in the wake of the
Kamapa's flight, and Palden Jenkin's recently shared
thoughts on the Chechens, Tibet, China, India & Mongolia.

Dave Hartley

STRATFOR.COM Weekly Global Intelligence Update
11 January 2000

China and India Declare War on the WTO


China and India are championing the cause of developing
nations that are members of the World Trade Organization
(WTO). India has warned that the "WTO cannot be allowed to
become another world government," while China has said that
the organization "does not reflect the interests and demands
of developing countries enough and clearly has defects."
Both nations have called for developing nations to rally
together to take a stronger role in the WTO. As major
economies of the developing nations prepare for conflict
with the developed nations, the efficacy and fate of the WTO
are at stake.


Speaking on Jan. 10 at the Confederation of Indian
Industry's annual Partnership Summit, Indian Commerce and
Industry Minister Murasoli Maran called for developing
nations in the World Trade Organization (WTO) to join
together to counter the influence of developed nations. At a
Beijing press conference, also on Jan. 10, the Chinese
vice-minister of the Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation
Ministry, Zhang Xiang, criticized the WTO for insufficiently
reflecting "the interests and demand of developing
countries." Zhang further suggested that China's WTO entry
would strengthen the negotiating hand of the developing
nations within the organization. With both India and China
targeting the WTO, the showdown recently seen in Seattle [
http://www.stratfor.com/services/giu/112999.asp ] is likely
to continue, threatening the role of the international body
[ http://www.stratfor.com/shakeupimf.htm ].

The WTO is divided between developing nations and developed
nations, particularly the United States and the European
Union. The battle between these two factions hampered
agreement in Seattle last year. India, currently one of the
largest economies among the developing nations in the WTO,
has called for the uncoupling of labor and environmental
standards from the WTO's core focus: trade.

During his speech in New Delhi, Maran called for more time
and preferential treatment for developing nations as they
worked to integrate with the global economic system. Maran
warned, "The WTO cannot be allowed to become another world
government." He called for developing nations to resist
moves by the developed nations that threaten sanctions to
reduce the competitiveness of the developing nations.

Even though it has yet to complete the bilateral agreements
that precede membership in the WTO, China, too, has attacked
the dominance of developed nations in setting the
organization's agenda. China is already setting itself up as
a leader among developing nations in countering what it
perceives to be the overwhelming influence of the United
States in the international organization.

In a Chinese government paper detailed by Japan's Kyodo
News, China foresees a clash between the "Chinese-style
market economy based on socialism and the interventionist
policies of Western countries." China expects that its entry
into the WTO will increase the ability of developing nations
to "counter large countries and obtain equal rights and
interests amid the world economy which has been manipulated
by the economic policies based on Western countries'
strong-arm politics."

With China and India, both major economies among the
developing nations, looking to take control of the WTO
agenda, conflict with developed nations - led primarily by
the United States - is inevitable. The WTO may well end up
perpetually mired in debates between the developing and
developed nations, leading to more ungainly compromises,
like the sharing of the director-general position [
http://www.stratfor.com/services/giu/050699.asp ].

In addition, if developing nations in support of
preferential treatment and state-run economies do take
control in the WTO, the United States and other major
developed nations may pull back from the organization,
leaving it an ineffective bloc of third-world economies with
little international influence. Already, the WTO's size and
the economic disparities between member nations seriously
hamper the institution.

The failure of the recent agenda-setting meeting in Seattle,
as well as the difficulties in even choosing a WTO director
general last year are clear indicators of the direction in
which the WTO as an organization is headed.

(c) 2000, Stratfor, Inc. http://www.stratfor.com/

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